Emission Scenarios for Methane and Nitrous Oxides from the Agricultural Sector in the EU-25

This report presents three emission scenarios of non-CO2 greenhouse gases from the agricultural sector of the EU-25 until 2020. These scenarios explore the likely implications of changes in agricultural production due to the - implementations of the EU Agenda 2000 CAP Reform of 1999 and the EU Nitrates Directive of 1991 (as used for the analyses of the EU Clean Air for Europe (CAFE) programme), - the implementation of the 2003 Mid-term review of the CAP reform and from anticipated impacts on fertilizer use of the reform of the EU sugar sector agreed in 2005, - and compare them with the agricultural projections provided by the EU Member States to IIASA for the preparations of the revision of the EU Emission Ceilings Directive in 2005. The emission scenarios have been developed with IIASA's Greenhouse and Air pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model (www.iiasa.ac.at/gains), which constitutes an extension of the Regional Air Pollution Information and Simulation (RAINS) model (www.iiasa.ac.at/rains) to greenhouse gases. All scenarios suggest for the EU-25 a significant decline of agricultural non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions between 1990 and future years, mainly as a consequence of declining cattle numbers due to productivity increases in milk and beef production and more efficient application of fertilizers. For the first scenario (i.e., CAFE projections reflecting the impacts of the Agenda 2000 CAP reform and the Nitrates Directive), an 11-13 percent decline of emissions from the EU-25 is estimated for the period 1990 to 2010, depending on the calculation methodology. The changes in livestock numbers and fertilizer use implied by the 2003 Mid-term review of the CAP reform and the EU sugar reform would reduce non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions further by approximately four percentage points. Based on the national projections of livestock numbers and fertilizer use as provided in 2005 by the Member States for the NEC revision, agricultural non-CO2 greenhouse gases are computed to decline by approximately 16 percent up to 2010. These trends show significant variations across Member States. Emissions from the old Member States (EU-15) are calculated to decline by between 7 to 13 percent, depending on the agricultural scenario and calculation method. For the new Member States (NMS-10), reductions between 32 and 35 percent are estimated. More than half of these reductions have occurred between 1990 and 1995, mainly due to the structural changes in the New Member States. Scenario 1 results in four percent additional emission reductions between 1995 and 2010, while the Mid-term CAP review Scenario 2 and the national projections suggest an eight percent further decline by approximately two percentage points

Strategies for Reducing Sulfur Dioxide Emissions in Europe

Based on the Regional Acidification Information and Simulation (RAINS) model the paper explores the following strategies to reduce sulfur emissions in Europe: -- Current Reduction Plans and Maximum Technically Feasible Reductions, -- a reduction of the difference between the deposition in 1990 and the 5 percentile critical loads by 30%, -- achievement of target loads based on the 5 percentile critical loads multiplied by a factor 1.5, 2.0 and 2.5, -- achievement of target loads based on the 50 percentile critical loads, -- reductions based on minimum marginal abatement cost of 2500 DM ton SO2, combined with an international allotment of the remaining money of 0.2% of GDP, -- attainment of national target loads submitted by a number of countries. These strategies are evaluated on the basis of: the national emissions levels in the year 2000, the relative emission reductions (compared the year 1980), the annual costs of pollution control measures and resulting sulfur deposition in relation to the critical loads

Structure of the RAINS 7.0 Energy and Emissions Database

The Regional Acidification Information and Simulation (RAINS) model has been developed as a tool to assess alternative strategies for reducing acid deposition. In the last years the model has been implemented for Europe, and it has been used to support international negotiations within the framework of the UN/ECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution. Only recently, acidification has been recognized as a potential problem also for the rapidly growing economies in South-East Asia. To explore this potential threat and to design countermeasures at an early stage the RAINS model is now being implemented also for this region. Consequently, data base structures and software have been revised to make the RAINS model a universal tool applicable to any region in the world, provided sufficient data are available. This paper gives a detailed description of the revised data base structure of the energy and emissions module of the new model version (RAINS 7.0) and provides data collection tables to facilitate the preparation of model input data

Modeling Particulate Emissions in Europe. A Framework to Estimate Reduction Potential and Control Costs

This paper presents the extension of the Regional Air Pollution Information and Simulation (RAINS) model that addresses present and future emissions of fine particulates in Europe, the potential for controlling these emissions and the costs of such emission reductions. Together with the existing modules dealing with the emissions of the precursor emissions of secondary aerosols such as sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), ammonia (NH3) and volatile organic compounds (VOC), this extension enables the comparison of the potentials and costs for controlling primary emissions of fine particles with those of secondary aerosols and to find cost-minimal approaches for reducing ambient levels of particulate matter. The emissions of particulate matter (PM) in the RAINS model are calculated for three different size classes: the fine fraction (PM2.5), the coarse fraction (PM10 - PM2.5) and large particles (PM_>10 5m). Summed up, these three fractions represent total suspended particles (TSP). Fine particles are emitted from a large number of sources with large differences in their technical and economic properties. The methodology distinguishes 392 source categories for stationary energy combustion, industrial processes, mobile sources and agriculture. For each of these sectors, the study explores the applicable options for reducing PM emissions, their efficiency and their costs. Emissions characteristics of the individual sectors are strongly determined by country-specific conditions. The methodology estimates emission control costs of standard technologies under the specific conditions characteristic for the various European countries. Based on the assumption of the general availability of control technologies with equal technical properties and costs, a number of country-specific circumstances (level of technological advancement, installation size distribution, labor costs, etc.) are used to estimate the costs for the actual operation of pollution control equipment. For the individual source sectors, emissions are estimated based on statistical information on economic activity and emission factors that reflect hypothetical emissions if no control measures were applied. These emission factors were taken from the literature and were, to the maximum possible extent, adapted to the country-specific conditions. Actual emissions are calculated taking into account the application of emission control measures in a given sector, for which also costs are estimated. The methodology was implemented for all European countries, covering the period from 1990 to 2010. At an aggregated level, estimates for past years (1990, 1995) correspond well with other national and international inventories. However, discrepancies are found for some detailed results for individual sectors and activities, and more work will be necessary to clarify them. This preliminary implementation suggests for Europe a 50 percent decline of primary emissions of fine particles between 1990 and 1995, mainly due to the economic restructuring in central and eastern European countries. The recently tightened regulations on large combustion plants and mobile sources will further reduce PM emissions, so that for 2010 European PM emissions are expected to be 60 percent below the level of 1990. However, less improvement is expected for the health-relevant fraction of fine particles (PM2.5). It needs to be emphasized that these preliminary estimates are still associated with considerable uncertainties, and more work, involving national experts, will be necessary to obtain a verified and generally accepted European data base to estimate the potential for further reductions of fine particles in Europe. The present implementation (version 2.00) of the RAINS PM module on the Internet (www.iiasa.ac.at/rains/Rains-online.html) provides free access to the input data and results to facilitate interaction with national experts